Monday, July 30, 2007

It's Official...Youth Movement is No Longer in the Cards!!!!!!!!


...And, my favorite basketball player of all-time, Ryan Gomes, may or may not remain in Celtic green. This detail hasn't yet been finalized, but I have my fingers crossed. Either way, it has no bearing on my final thoughts -- this was a trade that was too good to pass up. Assuming health, the C's show contend for the next 3 years!

Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, and an unspecified draft pick(s) for "The Big Ticket"...!!!!!!!!! A no-brainer!

Draft picks??? Who's cares? This team isn't going to be anywhere near the lottery for years to come!!

When you break it down, the deal is essentially...Big Al's youth and potential FOR Garnett's current stardom. I love it!!! The Celtics are relevent!! My beloved C's are relevent!! I just bought season tickets!

Ok, the logistics...

The NBA recently announced that the Salary Cap for the 2007-08 season will be $55.630 million. The tax level for the 2007-08 season has been set at $67.865 million. Any team whose team salary exceeds that figure will pay a $1 tax for each $1 by which it exceeds $67.865 million.

The mid-level exception is $5.356 million for the 2007-08 season and the minimum team salary, which is set at 75% of the Salary Cap, is $41.723 million.

With this incredible trade, the Celtics 15-man current roster shapes up as follows:

  • Kevin Garnett, $22M for 2007-08
  • Paul Pierce, $16.36M
  • Ray Allen, $16M
  • Kendrick Perkins, $4.48M
  • Brian Scalabrine, $3M
  • Tony Allen, $1.87M
  • Rajon Rondo, $1.37M
  • Ryan Gomes, $771K -- could very well be included in KG deal?
  • Leon Powe, $687K
  • Brandon Wallace, $427K
  • Gabe Pruitt, Rookie contract (undisclosed at this time)
  • Glen Davis, Rookie contract (undisclosed at this time)

...As constructed (and assuming Gomes is not part of the agreed upon deal), the C's have 12 players under contract (as they recently cut Villanova product Allan Ray). Without knowing the specifics of Pruitt's and/or "Big Baby's" rookie contracts, the C's have committed $66.965 million to 10 players. As both Pruitt and Davis were early 2nd Round picks in this year's draft, I'd have to assume that both signed multi-year rookie contracts...similar to that of Ryan Gomes' current contract (plus a slight adjustment due to inflation purposes). Assuming this to be true, I'll estimate the Celtics' 2007-2008 roster to currently stand at $68.6 million (which doesn't even begin to include KG's potential/additional "trade kicker" of up to $6.75 million) -- which already puts the Celts above the determined cap. For this, I thank Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, as he is the one that is allowing this trade to go through. As a fan, I speak on behalf of all true Celtic fans...we will make sure you make your money back!! "The Garden" is going to be rockin' this year!

Moving on...the C's clearly don't have any movable trading chips now -- it's the "The New Big 3" and several other important pieces (Rondo, Perkins, possibly Gomes, and hopefully a healthy Tony Allen). For that reason, I definitely don't expect another trade this offseason...no matter how insignificant it may or may not be. However, the C's can still utilize the aforementioned $5.356 mid-level exception (on either a backup PG or backup "big man"). Say hello to BREVIN KNIGHT (or Earl Boykins)!! A perfect piece, a great backup and/or mentor to Rondo...another motor on both ends of the court. The other need is at backup center (Olowokandi or Chris Webber?) that can provide the team with energy for at least 9-12 minutes/night, as Perkins is clearly only a 27-28 minute/night type of player (for the remaining few minutes, the C's possess the necessary parts to play "small ball" -- i.e., Gomes/Scalabrine/"Big Baby"/Powe). In the past, I have been very hard on Perkins -- but, with the addition of KG, Perkins' role finally seems to make sense. He plays solid defense and can rebound the basketball. He's a very big body that can bang with the best of them. He can't score a lick, as his offense is offensive. But, who cares???? The C's now have THREE All-Star offensive options...night-in and night-out!!! Perkins' meat-and-potatoes is going to come solely by way of offensive put-backs, aka "garbage buckets".

Danny Ainge - you deserve all the credit in the world for what you have accomplished this offseason! The C's are now a very balanced team - they can defend (KG, Perkins, Rondo, and Tony Allen), their top 7 players can fly up and down the court, and they can shoot the lights out (Ray Allen and Pierce), especially with Mr. Rondo pushing the ball down teams' throats.

PG - Rondo, Pruitt

SG - Ray Allen, Tony Allen

SF - Pierce, Gomes (?), Brandon Wallace

PF - Garnett, Scalabrine, Glen Davis, Powe

C - Perkins

It's now up to Doc (gulp) to mold this group - and ensure they all check their egos at the door. This year, we're going to see just how much of a "player's coach" Doc really is...


(The above photo comes via http://bostondirtdogs.com/)

5 comments:

Greg said...

Like your analysis and love the trade. I'm into this trade 100% right now and already emailed my Celtics ticket agent about renewing my season tickets.

Kevin McHale said...

This is the best analysis I've read yet, better than Simmons espn article.

Keep up the good work boys!!!!!!!

Carolina Red Sox said...

Great analysis. What's your gut on Ryan Gomes? Quite a few sites have him as in, some have him as out. FSN NE last night had him as out, as someone close to the deal confirmed this. I truly think if Gomes stays, he benefits from this in a huge way. He's creative for a "big" man, and the attention Garnett would get in the paint and 15-20 ft from the basket would only allow Gomes more opportunity... Hopefully he stays.

Chieftain said...

To be honest, I'm not sold on whether or not Gomes will or won't be included in this deal. My gut wants to say that the reports are wrong. Why? A couple reasons...

The T'wolves are going to be very bad for a few years -- with Gomes, they have 17 players on a 15-man active roster (granted, I'm sure they are actively trying to move Ricky Davis and/or Blount now). Two, Gomes is the perfect 7th Man on a good team...on a bad team like Minnesota, he has no role. Listen, Gomes has very limited upside. He is what he is. He's never going to hurt a team, but he's unlikely to ever become much better than he already is...which is a productive and versatile backup -- why do the T'wolves need such a player when they have gutted the entire team for the future??? He has 1 more year left on his current deal...and is sure to walk after this season, so why would Minnesota care about giving Gomes minutes when they should be developing their younger players that have higher upside (Randy Foye, Jefferson, Corey Brewer, and even Gerald Green and Craig Smith to a lesser extent). Thirdly, he's only making $771K - thus, his money has no bearing on matching up the salaries. Lastly, I think Ainge would be very hesitant to give away their last productive backup (who knows if Tony Allen will be fully healthy?) unless he believes that he can obtain 2 veterans on the "cheap" via the mid-level exception.

Bottom line, I hope Gomes remains a Celtic, as I've obsessed over him since he was a freshman at PC. But, the fact remains...Gomes doesn't make or break this deal. A role player (Bowen may be the lone exception) should never make or break a deal. In fact, Gomes has zero impact on my thoughts about this deal. After all, most players will produce numbers if they are just given the necessary minutes. Hell, from the little I've seen from Brandon Wallace, I firmly believe he could eventually become a Ryan Gomes clone (with better defense, but a worse shot).

Chieftain said...

Unfortunately, Gomes is part of the deal. He'll be a Timberwolf for a year.

Now, the C's can focus on backup veterans -- PG (Knight, Boykins) or backup "big man" (Webber, Olowokandi, PJ Brown, Dale Davis).

I for one, don't like Boykins on this roster. He's a shoot-first type of guy that's a liability defensively, exactly what they don't need with their "New Big 3" -- and he's too small to ever play significant time on the court, at the same time, with Rondo.

Any veteran the C's bring in this offseason needs to fit a particular role. I fail to identify what role Boykins could serve on this team.