Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Top 25 SP's in MLB

In putting together these rankings, heavy emphasis was put on recent success (specifically, the 2005 & 2006 seasons), the current season, the future which lies ahead, the league in which they pitch, and one's health resume. Essentially, my basis came down to which 25 pitchers you would trust most with the ball in their hands...going forward (in 2007 and beyond, to a much lesser degree).

(Disclaimer: These are not fantasy rankings)

(It should be noted that these rankings were not made on a whim, as I studied and analyzed every meaningful stat out there -- PECOTA peripherals, defined ERA+ numbers, replacement value, PERA stats, EqERA stats, etc.)

1. Johan Santana: 6-5, 3.30 ERA, 91 K's
2. Jake Peavy: 7-1, 1.68 ERA, 92 K's
3. Roy Oswalt: 6-4, 3.20 ERA, 57 K's
4. Brandon Webb: 5-3, 3.39 ERA, 75 K's
5. Roy Halladay: 5-2, 3.90 ERA, 45 K's
6. John Lackey: 9-3, 2.37 ERA, 65 K's
7. John Smoltz: 7-2, 2.82 ERA, 65 K's
8. C.C. Sabathia: 8-1, 3.78 ERA, 75 K's
9. Josh Beckett: 8-0, 2.95 ERA, 59 K's
10. Chien-Ming Wang: 4-4, 4.19 ERA, 25 K's
11. Dan Haren: 6-2, 1.70 ERA, 70 K's
12. Carlos Zambrano: 5-5, 5.62 ERA, 51 K's
13. Erik Bedard: 4-3, 3.73 ERA, 95 K's
14. Cole Hamels: 8-2, 3.55 ERA, 91 K's
15. Ben Sheets: 6-3, 3.51 ERA, 48 K's
16. Justin Verlander: 5-2, 3.44 ERA, 50 K's
17. Felix Hernandez: 3-3, 4.10 ERA, 42 K's
18. Jeremy Bonderman: 5-0, 3.27 ERA, 60 K's
19. Rich Hill: 4-4, 2.89 ERA, 63 K's
20. Tim Lincecum: 2-0, 4.05 ERA, 39 K's
21. Andy Pettitte: 3-4, 2.96 ERA, 41 K's
22. Chris Carpenter: 0-1, 7.50 ERA, 3 K's
23. Scott Kazmir: 3-3, 3.95 ERA, 71 K's
24. Barry Zito: 6-5, 3.87 ERA, 44 K's
25. Matt Cain: 2-5, 3.42 ERA, 54 K's

Others which garnered consideration (in no particular order):
Harang, Schilling, Clemens, Jered Weaver, Chris Young, Hudson, Willis, Harden (way too injury prone...and likely bullpen-bound)

...I tried being COMPLETELY objective (if you know me, you know it pained me to drop Wang all the way down to #10). Where do we agree/disagree???

(As I'm writing this, the Red Sox just tied the game...in the 9th, on a Wily Mo Pena single. Francona is managing this team perfectly this year, thus far. It makes me sick.) Goodnight!


Chieftain said...

JC Romero...die!!

0 outs. Bases loaded. No runs. Are you f'n kidding me???????

Simply Suds said...

Guy, if you are trying to be objective, then there is no way Curt Schilling doesn't make this list. 5-2 3.91 ERA, 62K's...and the competitiveness on the mound? You're nuts. I'm sure you'll come back with some riddiculous notion as to Schilling being a has been...but a few names on your list couldn't hold his jock in a big game.

Anonymous said...

this list is bullsh*t. Rick Vaughn should be in the top 10

Anonymous said...

im not even going to entertain an argument on this one. ill just state what i think we are all thinking at this point. matt cain, tim linecum rich hill barry zito???? all better than schilling? if "essentially it comes down to who you would trust most with the ball going forward", you cant possibly be serious in leaving out schilling for matt f*ckin cain or rich hill? chieftain, you are smarter than that. please tell me this was an attempt to get red sox fans worked up. and if your factoring in future projections, than zambrano's stock has to be falling. he is pitching terrible, on a terrible team, and going nowhere other than the boxing ring with michael barrett. im a little shocked you would throw a rookie in tim linecum, who clearly has the capabilities of being a stud granted, on the list. i seem to recall dontrelle willis being ridiculous when he came up as well. now he didnt even make your list. but as suds said above, youll come back with 500 different stats that no one gives a sh*t about telling us why schilling is the anti-christ and shouldnt be on the list. im so shocked i dont know what else to say. i thought chieftain was a better baseball mind than that, even if he is a yankee fan.

Norman P. Orlando said...

holy crap, i've never heard chieftain get so smoked before.

Chieftain said...

When compiling this list, I put together a huge spreadsheet (it would make your heads spin). In the process, I hid all names...that way, name value had no bearing.

In the end, Schilling's splits come MUCH closer to resembling Gil Meche than the likes which have been noted in the above comments. Seriously, look deeper into Schilling's past couple seasons. He's been getting tagged at an alarming rate...in the past 3 seasons, opponents have batted .314, .276, and .291 against him. That defines AWFUL.

The 2nd smartest move Theo has made since becoming GM (#1 was Ortiz) was not re-signing Schilling for $13M this past offseason. Gil Meche was just awarded $11M/year this past offseason...and EVERY "Moneyball" statistic indicates Schilling's "real" worth is under $10M for the upcoming 2008 season. Why do you think Theo/Bill James declined Schilling's "modest" offer??? Because it was a high-end offer!

Old as hell. Flat pitches right in the zone (considering he only throws strikes) = LIFTOFF in the years to come.

Chieftain said...

Bottom line...if you think Schilling should make the cut, then you are disagreeing with both myself and Red Sox management.

Chieftain said...

When I say, "trust most with the ball in their hand," I'm talking about for the rest of the season (and beyond)...not just 1 game.