Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Santana's Trend from Mediocre Start to Magnificent Season Continues...

Take note. The data doesn't lie. Johan Santana, the inarguable the best pitcher in major league baseball, has a downside (especially in fantasy circles). Santana, since 2004, has put up mediocre stats the first three starts of each season (with the exception of 2005 - when in games 2 and 3, he totalled 21 K's and allowed only 2 earned runs per game). Since 2004, including his start on Monday in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings (not exactly the stats you would expect from a top 5 fantasy player), he has an overall ERA of 5.03 in his first three games of the season (this even takes into account games 2 and 3 of 2005). Compare that to his regular season ERA of 2.75 since 2004 and you find a 183% increase in ERA in the first three starts of the season. A key side note, Santana went on to win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006. Fantasy owners take note...if you are in a non-competitive league (competitive league participants already know this trend before drafting him), TRADE FOR HIM NOW. You will not get another chance to land him anytime after his 3rd start of 2007, if not before. Take one last note. Johan will dominate opposing hitters for most of the year, usually just not until after mid April.

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