Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Fun With Numbers



Want to know who has had the greatest value on his respective team's success to-date? Want to know who the real MVP candidates should be? Where does your favorite player rank?

If you consider yourself a baseball fan, then you've certainly heard the term "Win Shares". After all, all baseball fans must have already read Alan Schwartz's "The Numbers Game" -- quite simply, the best baseball read on the market. As The Hardball Times indicates, Win Shares estimate the contribution each player has made to his team's wins. This is an entirely different way of thinking about players, stats, and value -- because it measures every baseball event within the context of the ultimate goal: winning games.

"Win Shares" is often referred to by many similar names -- for example, Player Win Averages, Player Game Percentage, Win Probability Added, Win Expectancy, Game State Wins, Player's Win Value, and WRAP.

When it comes to the Cy Young award...it should be noted that I don't necessarily agree with "Win Shares" as being the determining factor. Why? Because the purpose of the Cy Young award is to honor the best overall pitcher during that season, not the pitcher which provided his team with the highest "Win Share" total. At the end of the day, the MVP award includes the terms "most valuable"...not the Cy Young award. Furthermore, Win Probability doesn't solve the sticky issue of splitting credit between pitching and fielding (some day, I will be the one that nails down this formula).

For purposes of this post, the site that I'm going to link to refers to the stat in question as "WPA" (or Win Probability Added). Take a few minutes, and dissect what this site has to offer. There's many of you out there that could stand to learn a lot. You're welcome.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=0&season=2007

15 comments:

Norman P. Orlando said...

what happened to just being able to watch a game an enjoy it? Nowadays you have nitwits like Chieftain that have nothing better to do with their life than to get all 'scientific' with the game. Yo Chieftain....get a hobby. Build a model airplane or some sh*t.

Sam Cassell said...

Gotta disagree with Orlando on this one. If you don't understand the numbers, then you don't understand the game. Baseball is all numbers.

Norman P. Orlando said...

dynamite drop in Sammy....ever think that maybe you're just as big of a loser as Chieftain. Maybe you two could pick up pickle sniffing as a hobby.

Sam Cassell said...

Jerry Garcia called, he wants his act back.

jerry garcia said...

u lose orlando. baseball is a numbers game. go back to talking about soccer. at least that way no one will read it and you wont catch any shit.

Norman P. Orlando said...

Jerry....say it ain't so

Trey Anastasio said...

the woman was a dream I had
though rather hard to keep
for when my eyes were watching hers, they closed, and I was still asleep

for when my hand was holding hers
she whispered words and I awoke

and faintly bouncing round the room
the echo of whomever spoke
and I awoke, and faintly bouncing round the room
the echo of whomever spoke

the place I sought was far beneath, the surface of the sea
my sight was poor, but I was sure
the sirens sang their song for me

they dance above me as I sink
I see them through a crystal haze
and hear the sweet sound bouncing round
the neverending coral maze,
the crystal haze,
and hear the bouncing round the room
the neverending coral maze

then before and now once more, I'm bouncing round the room
that time then and once again, I'm bouncing round the room
that time then and once again, I'm bouncing round the room
that time then and once again, I'm bouncing round the room
that time then and once again, I'm bouncing round the room, (cont)

and I awoke, faintly bouncing round the room
the echo of whomever spoke
and I awoke, faintly bouncing round the room
the echo of whomever spoke
and I awoke, faintly bouncing round the room
the echo of whomever spoke (cont)

Anonymous said...

Phish reunion tour?

Trey Anastasio said...

Keep livin' the dream Orlando. Us hippies that don't shower need to stick together. Hemp, tie dye, and grubby hair for life brother.

Peace, Love, Rock N Roll and Shrooms,

Trey

Trey Anastasio said...

Keep livin' the dream Orlando. Us hippies that don't shower need to stick together. Hemp, tie dye, and grubby hair for life brother.

Peace, Love, Rock N Roll and Shrooms,

Trey

Norman P. Orlando said...

I hear ya kid. Hey Suds aren't you unemployed again??? and have been for about 8 months??? Shouldn't you think about joining our squad and sucking off the gov't titty?

Simply Suds said...

I'm all set.

Chelsea Clinton Sparks said...

Chieftain, if your sports knowledge is so good, why don't you do something about it rather than post on a blog and talk about your "prowess" in FANTASY leagues? You want a good website recommendation? Check this out, it'll help you out: http://www.traponline.com/?gclid=CP--l_-JiI4CFQYuHgodBVw5PQ

Chieftain said...

Thanks, buddy.

I guess it takes one to know one...

Anonymous said...

Hey-Ho!